Tobacco-supported group opposing I-185 raises $7.7 million, outspending others by far
With less than two months until the November election, the group opposing a ballot initiative that would increase the tax on tobacco products to pay for Medicaid expansion dramatically revved up its campaign contributions and spending.
During the month of August, Montanans Against Tax Hikes reported bringing in more than $7.7 million in its effort to defeat Ballot Initiative 185, which would raise the price of a pack of cigarettes by $2.
For comparison, no group supporting or opposing other initiatives on the ballot this year reported raising more than $250,000 in the month of August.
“That is a large amount of money,” said Carroll College Associate Professor of Political Science Jeremy Johnson.
In addition to raising the tax on cigarettes, the initiative would increase the cost of snuff and vaping products. The money raised would go to pay for the cost of Medicaid expansion, which the initiative would also continue past the current sunset date of June 2019. Money also would go to other health-related programs such as veterans’ services and long-term care for seniors and people with disabilities. The initiative would raise an estimated $74.3 million per year by 2023.
The Montana Legislature passed Medicaid expansion in 2015. Since it was rolled out in 2016 the program has grown to cover nearly 100,000 people in the state with a population of just over 1 million. The Legislature built in the sunset date of July 2019. If the initiative passes, expansion would continue. Otherwise, the 2019 Legislature would have to choose to extend it.
Republicans, who hold a majority in the Legislature, have argued expansion cost more than was originally projected. That’s true, because far more people gained coverage than lawmakers predicted. However, the state health department counters that expansion has saved money in the long run by switching some populations from regular Medicaid to the expansion group, where the federal government pays more.
A group called Altria Client Services has put in nearly $4 million into MATH’s efforts to oppose the initiative. Altria represents companies including Philip Morris USA, USA Smokeless Tobacco and others. During August, MATH spent more than $3.5 million, with much of the money going toward advertisements against the ballot initiative. That left the group with $4.1 million in the bank with a little less than two months before the election.
Earlier this month, the state Commissioner of Political Practices found Altria and another group, RAI Services Co., failed to register on time and properly report campaign expenses in their opposition to the ballot initiative.
Supporters of the initiative say it will help deter people from becoming tobacco users and keep nearly 100,000 Montanans covered by Medicaid expansion, as well as pay for other health programs. Opponents argue it’s an additional tax that predominately targets lower-income people, and that the money will not pay for everything the initiative promises.
Amanda Cahill, with American Heart Association-Montana, one of the groups supporting I-185, said voters need to look at where the money opposing the initiative is coming from.
“First Big Tobacco lied for generations about the health effects of their deadly products, then they lied about marketing to kids, and now they are spending at levels we have not seen in recent years for a citizens’ initiative to protect their profits at the expense of health care for 100,000 Montanans,” Cahill said. “If you follow the money, it’s clear that the world’s largest tobacco corporations are willing to stop at nothing to protect their profits.”
“I-185 is a massive new tax increase that permanently expands Medicaid but doesn’t allocate enough money to pay for it, leaving all Montanans on the hook for tens of millions of dollars per year,” Denowh said. “Montanans Against Tax Hikes plans to run an aggressive campaign and make sure voters understand why they should reject I-185.”
Johnson said it’s unclear if the large amount of money will make a difference.
“It’s not been consistent,” Johnson said of past spending on advertisements for ballot initiatives. “Sometimes they can really turn public opinion. Sometimes these arguments land with a thud. We don’t always know what’s going to happen until the actual election day.”
To qualify for the ballot, I-185 supporters gathered more than 40,000 signatures, which the group Healthy Montana said shows the initiative already has a lot of support.
Johnson said out-of-state groups often find they get more bang for their advertising buck in Montana because of the low cost of time on television, radio and other outlets. That makes it a good place to spend a lot of money.
“That’s part of why so much money’s being spent by the tobacco industry,” Johnson said.
Because of the recent influx of out-of-state money in elections here, Montana voters tend to pay more attention than voters in other states when large groups spend money here, Johnson said.
“It’s not surprising an interest group will try to find whatever argument they can come up with to not pay a tax, but sometimes they’re effective and sometimes they’re not,” Johnson said.
The group supporting the initiative, Healthy Montana for I-185, brought in a little over $1 million in August. One of that group’s biggest backers is the Montana Hospital Association, which to date has kicked in $1.2 million. The next largest contributor, the American Cancer Society Cancer Action Network for I-185, has contributed $155,033.
Healthy Montana for I-185 had $527,000 left in the bank at the end of the month compared to $4.1 million for MATH.